Monday, September 27, 2004
Hootz's Guide to Senate Preferences
Hootz has a look at the winners and losers from the preference negotiations for the six Victorian Senate seats up for grabs.
Australian Progressive Alliance (APA) (Group G)
The APA seem to have faired better than the Democrats, securing preferences from more parties but usually after those preferences have been passed on to Family First or the Greens. The Democrats are preferencing the APA before any of the other minor/major parties. They will still have to wait until hell freezes over before winning a seat here but their preferences might help Family First or the Democrats get over the line.
Australian Labor Party (ALP) (Group I)
The ALP will pick up 2 Senate spots with ease. Jacinta Collins (3rd placed on the ALP ticket) will have a hard time holding on to her seat, although with help from the Christian Democratic Party and Family First, she may get over the line for the 6th spot.
Democrats (Group J)
I can't imagine a party in this state who has come out worse than the Democrats from the preference negotiations. However, they are still a possibility for the 6th spot, providing the Greens get more than quota, and they can beat off Jacinta Collins, Family First and Judith Troeth from the Liberals.
Greens (Group N)
The Greens as usual have been preferenced well by the micro and minor parties, however, these preferences usually filter through Family First first. This is also the case with ALP preferences. The way they are polling currently, they stand a good chance of winning the 5th or 6th Senate spot. Their increased vote in the inner Melbourne electorates may assist keeping the major party votes in the Senate at bay.
Liberal Party / National Party (Group P)
They are likely to pick up at least 2 spots - one for the Libs, one for the Nats. Judith Troeth is placed third on the ticket is likely to lose her seat (and 6th position) to Family First, Jacinta Collins or possibly even the Democrats. The libs would need over 42% in order to obtain 3 Senate spots, and their share of preferences isn't as good as the other parties.
Family First (Group Q)
They have the lion's share of preferences - from the left, the right and the centre. They must have one hell of a preference negotiator. Depending on how they go with primary votes in their first poll in Victoria, they are a possibility for the 6th Senate position.
One Nation (Group R)
Unlike the APA, who stand a chance if hell froze over of winning a Senate spot in Victoria, One Nation wouldn't stand a chance even if there was an ice age down there. The best they can do is increase Family First's or the Liberal's chances for the 6th position.
UPDATE:
According to Roy Morgan...
"Victoria: The ALP and L-NP would have each won two seats with the Greens also winning a seat, resulting in the loss of an L-NP Senator. The remaining seat would either go to the ALP or the Australian Democrats." (Quoted from Poll Bludger - 23/09/04)
While this fits in well with Hootz's estimates, Antony Green has a different analysis. Is Antony predicting 3 L-NP and 2 ALP with the 6th seat going to the ALP, Family First or the Greens (in which case the Greens may find it hard if they don't get a full quota)?
Hootz disagrees as the L-NP will be hard placed to get a 3rd quota.
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